You know what they always say, “Throw out the record books”. And you know what I always say, “Always look at the record book in this one. Because it tells the story”. The late ‘80’s and early ‘90s of this series got people thinking that anything could happen. And of course it can. But the numbers tell you it normally doesn’t. This is the 33rd ranked matchup since the AP started in 1936. The higher ranked team has won 22 of the previous 32 games (69%). So almost 7 out of every 10, the “better” team wins. It’s the 8th time they’ll be 10 spots or more apart in the rankings. Texas is 3, OU is 20. In the previous 7 games, the higher ranked team is 5-1-1. UT won as the lower ranked team in 1958. Oklahoma has never won such a matchup as the lower ranked team. Also, just for you super nerds, this is the first time either team has been 20 or lower in a ranked matchup. Yes, I know. It’s a wonder my wife ever gave me the time of day. In the last 23 games, just the team with the better record is 10-5 (8 games they had the same record going in). So again, always lean towards the better team in this game.
Before we get to my thoughts on this year’s game, another interesting stat. This is obviously a match up of a 2 loss team and an undefeated. How many times has that happened in the entire series? Only 11 times out of 103 games (11%). In those 11, the undefeated team is 8-3. In the 8 wins, the average margin of defeat is 31-7. In the 3 wins for the 2 loss teams, they won by 3 points, 6 points, and 2 points. So what does that tell us about this game? It suggests that Texas will win a blowout or OU will win a close one.
Now to this game. I like Texas because of the defense and the way they match up with this OU offense. The closest thing the Sooners have seen to this level of run defense is Tulsa. Texas is #1 in the country against the run. Plus I don’t think Bradford, that O line, and those WR’s can score enough to beat Texas. On the other side, everyone is talking about Texas and slow starts, or the running game. Here’s what everyone is missing. OU’s defense isn’t great. It’s good. The best offense they’ve played, BYU, beat them. Texas has too many weapons and will be the biggest challenge OU has faced. The 47th best pass defense will give up plays to Colt and that passing attack.
Lastly, this game is all about the Texas O line for me. If they play well, ball game. If not, OU will be in it until the end. So keep these last 2 numbers in mind from the OU perspective: turnovers and running game. The last 23 games in the series, if you win the turnover battle, you win 78% of the time (18 of 23). Texas can’t have the turnovers deep in their territory that have plagued them this year. If OU can get an early lead, they can withstand a Texas charge. To ultimately win, though, OU must run well. If you outrush the opponent over the last 23 years, you win 70% of the Red River Shootouts. And with Bradford’s options in the passing game, a running game is critical for the Sooners.
Ok, one last weird number. The only team in the last 23 games to lose turnovers and rushing and win – ’90 UT (14-13). Shock the nation indeed.
Again, I’m taking Texas. I’m trusting my eyes and the numbers. The better team normally handles business is Dallas. UT – 35, OU – 13.
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